Biden’s hands are tied on UNRWA funding

With help from Maggie Miller and Joseph Gedeon

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The White House has signaled that it might lift its pause on funding to the main U.N. agency that delivers humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza. But even if it does, its hands are tied by Congress until next year.

On Monday, an independent report said that Israel hasn’t yet presented evidence backing its allegations that a significant number of staffers of U.N. relief agency UNRWA are affiliated with terrorist organizations, but suggested reforms to the agency’s vetting process. In January, Israel claimed several staffers took part in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, causing the U.S. and other donor countries to pause funding.

But as the State Department reviews the investigation and awaits the completion of another, UNRWA advocates say it doesn’t immediately make a difference whether the U.S. lifts its pause or not, since Congress suspended contributions until March 2025.

The Biden administration hasn’t “invested much political capital into helping UNRWA on Capitol Hill,” a senior U.N. official familiar with the talks told NatSec Daily. “There’s always some equity seemingly more important than fighting for UNRWA.”

Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.), who led the charge in Congress to resume U.S. funding to the agency, backed the report’s findings and urged the U.S. to take action accordingly.

“Despite the Netanyahu government’s attempts to muddy the water, there is no evidence of broad coordination between UNRWA and Hamas,” Van Hollen told NatSec Daily.

In recent weeks, Japan, Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Iceland and Sweden lifted their funding pauses on the agency, each a major win for the group. The United States pause is particularly tough, given that it has provided almost $1 billion to UNRWA in the past three years, including $296 million in 2023 alone. The agency employs about 30,000 people worldwide, with 13,000 in Gaza alone.

“In terms of our funding of UNRWA, that is still suspended. We’re gonna have to see real progress here before that gets changed,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today.

For UNRWA, success would be if all countries unpause funding for the agency and find new donors to bridge the gap left by the United States, which would allow them to make payroll for the rest of the year, the U.N. official said. Right now, UNRWA is only funded until June.

If that doesn’t happen, “the whole operation shuts down — not just in Gaza, but also the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon,” said the official, granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. “Everybody’s worried we’re gonna run out of road at some point, and that poses real risks to regional stability.”

Even if the Biden administration wanted to send money to the agency right away, it wouldn’t be able to convince lawmakers to lift the March 2025 prohibition, the official added. But the U.S. announcing its support for UNRWA following the investigation could help convince other countries to resume funding.

“As more facts emerge, it’s clear there was a rush to judgment about UNRWA that justifies repealing that provision,” the official said.

The stakes are high, as U.S. officials and world leaders warn of famine spreading in Gaza.

“We don’t know” if famine has been averted, SONALI KORDE, deputy assistant administrator in USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, told reporters today.

Many aid groups working in Gaza need UNRWA to function so that they can do their jobs. The agency has the vast majority of the humanitarian workers that are in Gaza, facilities for the aid, transport capability, and the logistical infrastructure to make sure aid reaches civilians, SCOTT PAUL, Oxfam America’s associate director of peace and security, told NatSec Daily.

As the U.S. considers resuming funding, however, it’s facing pushback from Israel. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has called for the agency to be shuttered and replaced “with responsible international aid agencies.” On Monday, Israel’s foreign ministry called on donors to avoid sending money to the agency.

“UNRWA is the backbone of any humanitarian response, there’s just no way around that,” Paul said.

The Inbox

ANOTHER UKRAINE PACKAGE: The Biden administration is preparing a military aid package for Ukraine worth about $1 billion, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

As our own LEE HUDSON, LARA SELIGMAN and NAHAL TOOSI report, the tranche will include artillery, air defenses and armored vehicles — Bradley Fighting Vehicles, as well as potentially older Humvees and M113 armored personnel carriers, Lee and Lara first reported Monday. The Pentagon is still putting the finishing touches on the package, but the total will be roughly $1 billion, the people said.

The package the U.S. is working on is significantly larger than the most recent tranche of weapons authorized for Ukraine in March, which totaled $300 million. That was only the second package the Defense Department was able to send Kyiv since December when it ran out of funding to support the war effort.

Scroll down to On the Hill for more on the Senate bill.

INTENSE FIGHTING IN GAZA: Israel conducted some of its heaviest shelling on Gaza in weeks, residents said, flattening some neighborhoods overnight where Israeli troops had withdrawn, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI reports.

The Israeli military ordered evacuations in the northern part of the territory, saying that civilians there were in a “dangerous combat zone.”

Israeli tanks entered the city of Beit Hanoun on the northern edge of the Gaza Strip, but didn’t go too far into the city, residents and Hamas media said. Airstrikes and shelling from tanks were also reported in central and southern Gaza throughout the day.

Meanwhile, the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group said today that it launched a drone attack against Israeli military bases 10 miles inside the northern part of the country, in what would be the group’s deepest strike in Israel since the start of the Gaza war in October, Reuters’ JANA CHOUKEIR and MAAYAN LUBELL report.

MOSCOW’S TARGETS: Russian forces will increasingly attack Ukrainian storage facilities that house Western-provided weapons, Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU warned today, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports.

Speaking to defense officials, Shoigu noted that the intensifying strikes will come as the U.S. prepares to send a new tranche of weapons to Ukraine. The defense chief also said Russia will “increase the production of the most popular weapons and military equipment.”

But Russia has been making mistakes during strikes as recent as last week — dropping a massive missile on its own territory. Overall, at least 21 aerial bombs fell from Russian planes on Russia or occupied territories of Ukraine in March and April alone, according to Russian independent media outlet Astra.

BIDEN’S FALTERING AFRICA STRATEGY: The Biden administration is coming to terms with the shortcomings of its plan to nudge African countries away from security partnerships with Russia, our own ERIN BANCO and Lara reported Monday night.

A spate of African countries in the Sahel and Northern Africa — Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso and most recently Niger — have experienced coups in recent years and some have increasingly turned to Russia for military assistance. In exchange for security assistance, military governments in these countries have allowed paramilitary and mercenary groups like the Wagner Group to set up operations there. Some of these countries have also asked American troops to quit setting up bases and installations.

Erin and Lara write that Washington’s efforts to convince these countries to restore democracy have “not reversed decisions by African leaders, especially those in coup governments, to partner with Russia.” An official explained that coup leaders’ immediate needs for assistance and security are too great, and the U.S. can’t provide that kind of help.

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Keystrokes

IRANIAN CYBER ACTORS HIT: The Treasury Department and the State Department are unleashing a new round of sanctions aimed at disrupting Iranian cyber operations targeting U.S. companies and government agencies, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!).

The targets unveiled Tuesday include two companies — Mehrsam Andisheh Saz Nik and Dadeh Afzar Arman — that the Treasury says have served as front companies for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ cyber arms. Four individuals affiliated with those firms were also hit with sanctions for their roles in hacking campaigns like spear-phishing and malware attacks against more than a dozen U.S. entities, including the Treasury itself.

“Iranian malicious cyber actors continue to target U.S. companies and government entities in a coordinated, multi-pronged campaign intended to destabilize our critical infrastructure and cause harm to our citizens,” Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence Brian Nelson said in a press release.

The designations come as the DOJ and FBI are unsealing indictments against the four cyber operatives. Some have been involved in testing malware against job-seekers, especially military veterans, according to Treasury.

It’s the latest brush-up on the cyber conflict between Washington and Tehran. In February, the Treasury hit six IRGC-linked hackers over an operation that broke into industrial control systems.

The Complex

A GOOD QUARTER FOR DEFENSE: Defense manufacturers and contractors are trumpeting strong numbers to investors from the first quarter, buoyed by continued high demand for munitions and weapons and the foreign aid package making its way through Capitol Hill.

As Lee reports, Lockheed Martin said its missile division reported 25 percent increases in sales over orders of its Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile and Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile. The company also saw increased demand for Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system.

The aeronautics division also saw growth, attributed by company executives to the F-35 fighter, F-16 jets and classified programs. The company is looking to resume fighter jet deliveries to the Defense Department as early as September, the company’s CEO JIM TAICLET said today on an earnings call. Deliveries were halted in 2022 over the use of a Chinese-manufactured alloy in the jets and later again in July 2023, over software issues.

Lockheed is not the only company enjoying a plum position. Defense manufacturer RTX expects a major windfall from the foreign aid package, Lee also reports (for Pros!). On an earnings call, RTX president and chief operating officer CHRIS CALIO said today that the company, which includes Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney and Raytheon, could fulfill two-thirds of the equipment in the Ukraine bill and one-third for both Israel and the Pacific.

RTX saw a six percent increase in defense business through its Raytheon unit, which manufactures the Patriot missile defense system, counter-drone, and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, highly coveted by Ukraine and its allies.

On the Hill

SENATE TAKES UP AID BILL: The Senate voted to begin debate on the House package of foreign aid bills today, our own URSULA PERANO and ANTHONY ADRAGNA report. But be prepared for a long night, as senators on both sides of the aisle are expected to raise amendments and prolong the process to fully pass the bill.

Republicans, including Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah), are looking to kill the aid package and have called the $95 billion slate of House bills “unadulterated capitulation.” They’re protesting aid to Ukraine as well as humanitarian assistance to Palestinians affected by the Israel-Hamas war, even though provisions are in place to ensure the militant group has no access to the funds.

The heartburn isn’t just limited to the GOP. As Anthony reports, Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) is also among those interested in amendment votes for the Israel aid component. “The Senate should have a chance to debate and vote on the key components of such a massive package,” he said in a statement Monday evening.

Read: Mike Johnson’s momentous shift by our own JONATHAN MARTIN

Broadsides

CHINA’S FLUSH DEFENSE COFFERS: The Navy’s top officer for Asia and the Pacific is warning that China’s increased defense spending portends a bigger threat than immediately obvious, according to the Wall Street Journal’s PETER LANDERS.

Speaking to reporters in Tokyo, Adm. JOHN AQUILINO, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned that Beijing’s decision to increase defense spending, even as the country’s economy falters, shows how much China is prioritizing its military ambitions. China is looking to increase defense spending by over 7 percent this year.

“I think it’s drastically more than that,” he said. “Despite a failing economy, there’s a conscious decision to fund military capability. That’s concerning to me.”

Aquilino also threw cold water on Beijing’s official numbers suggesting the economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter, describing the figure as “not real.”

Transitions

— Retired Gen. DAVID “DT” THOMPSON, the Space Force’s first vice chief of space operations, joined Spirent Federal Systems, a positioning, navigation, and timing test solutions provider, as an adviser.

What to Read

— JOHN KAMPFNER, POLITICO: What, if anything, does Europe have to offer Trump?

— PATRICIA GARIP, Americas Quarterly: Why the U.S. and China suddenly care about a port in southern Chile

— ELIZABETH ECONOMY, Foreign Affairs: China’s alternative order

Tomorrow Today

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.: 2024 global security forum on “Gathering Strength in a Gathering Storm”

— Air & Space Forces Association, 10 a.m: How U.S. space force is applying and executing electromagnetic warfare in, from and to space

— Washington International Trade Association and the Asia Society Policy Institute, 10 a.m.: Shipbuilding: the next U.S.-China trade battle?

— Independent Task Force on the Application of National Security Memorandum-20, 10 a.m.: Findings on Israeli compliance with international law and National Security Memorandum 20

— Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: Virtual book discussion on SIMON SHUSTER’s “The Showman: Inside the Invasion That Shook the World and Made a Leader of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.”

— Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: The new era in the U.S.-Japan relationship

— Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 1 p.m.: The top issues for NATO’s Allied Air Command as it adapts to a rapidly changing security environment

— Jews United for Democracy and Justice, 8 p.m.: Russia’s war on Ukraine

Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who wants NatSec Daily shuttered, or for Matt to be replaced.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would lead a great newsletter with Eric.

CORRECTION: Monday’s newsletter misstated Kaliningrad’s geographic location. It is on the Baltic Sea.